Present common AGI estimate
Now we have invited many notable individuals and corporations in AI to provide us estimates for after they suppose AGI (synthetic normal intelligence) shall be achieved. We then common the estimates to offer this countdown. When date ranges are given as estimates we use the decrease finish for our countdown – so the common estimate is a little more aggressive than the precise estimates may counsel.
Definitions of AGI will fluctuate however we are going to depart this countdown open to every contributor’s personal interpretation of the exact that means.
The present estimate based mostly on 3 contributions is 2025-10-01.
Utilizing https://onlinetimetools.com/calculate-average-calendar-date
That is by all means not a rigorous scientific strategy to the subject of AGI and a proper strategy to estimating its “arrival”” date. Additionally, after all, the subject of AGI itself is just not effectively outlined – if it may be exactly outlined in any respect. That is, nonetheless, an fascinating matter usually and subsequently we thought of it worthwhile exploring.
Contributors
Right here’s the record of present contributors (we have now many extra invites pending through Twitter DMs) to the estimate, together with some ideas concerning the estimate, when supplied:
Jacob Valdez – 2023-12-31
Elon Musk? (invitation for an estimate has been despatched)
Robert Scoble? (invitation for an estimate has been despatched)
Geoffrey Hinton – 2028-04-01 (5 to twenty, down from 20 to 50, years as of March 2023, source)
Steve Digital – 2025-01-01
”2022, particularly, and the prior years have proven super progress in AI. 2023 will simply trump that for my part and with additional leaps in emergent behaviours and skills I count on AGI to be with us no later than the start of 2025. It is a very optimistic timeline. I’m additionally weary of what that can imply for humankind however I’ve hopes that we’ll use AGI to dramatically enhance everybody’s lives worldwide.”
Different contributions
After inviting many individuals we did additionally get suggestions that mainly said that this text is ridiculous or no less than not well-defined sufficient to warrant an try at estimating a date or date vary. They’re completely reputable and mainly right, however that didn’t cease us from exploring the subject. Listed here are some examples.